Minister Gordhan; will he stay or will he go?

For a insight and a full overview on the current Gordhan situation, click on the link provided. Gordhan – will he stay or will he go

A summary of political analysts’ views on Gordhan Analyst Will he go? Who would replace him Would fiscal policy change? Implications (RMB interpretation)
Ralph Mathekga Yes. He is likely to resign due to isolation within the ANC. It’s difficult to tell at this point. It already is changing – the ANC is becoming more populist with negative budget consequences. Conditions will get much worse.
Steven Friedman Unlikely. This is only an attempt to weaken him. If he did go, then Deputy Minister Jonas would replace him. If he did go there would be no change in announced budget changes, but there would be actual relaxation of controls. After a period of nervousness the markets would recover and settle down.
Prince Mashele Yes. His arrest will provide the excuse for the Deputy Finance Minister plus DG to also be replaced. Brian Molefe. Central government policy would remain unchanged. SOE finances would worsen. Markets in for a very bad ride over the next month or so.
Mari Harris Its possible, even probable. No idea, but someone close to the President. Maybe Molefe. Yes, if it’s a Zuma insider, via allocation of cash to SOEs. Risks to play out soon with very bad market consequences.
Anthony Butler Yes. Its likely to happen soon. Brian Molefe, at a stretch Tito Mboweni. Yes, terribly. But the implications might be worse for Zuma. Risks to play out within the next 4 months with very bad market consequences.

For each political analysists detailed opinion click on the link provided. Gordhan – will he stay or will he go